نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 استادیار گروه تربیت بدنی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی مشهد، ایران
2 استاد گروه مدیریت ورزشی،دانشگاه پیام نور
3 استاد گروه مدیریت ورزشی، دانشگاه پیام نور
عنوان مقاله [English]
The purpose of the present study is to foresight of Iranian championship sports through scenario writing and cross impact analysis. This research is applied in terms of purpose and survey in terms of implementation method. In terms of nature, according to foresight methods, it is in the category of quantitative and qualitative methods. Data collection tools include resource review, interview, questionnaire, cross impact analysis techniques, and scenario writing. The statistical population of the study, the directors of the championship sports federations, the ministry of sports and youth, the national olympic committee and the professors of sports management, about 200 people, Of these, 32 sports and academic experts were purposive selected for statistical sample. Two questionnaires of effectiveness and certainty and two matrices were used to collect data. These questionnaires after reviewing resources and interviewing design experts, their validity were confirmed by 11 experts and their reliability using Cronbach's alpha was 0.967 and 0.970, respectively. The questionnaires each consisted of 64 primary factors, among which 21 more important factors were identified using one sample T-test. These factors are completed in a 21 × 21 matrix by experts and analyzed with Micmac software and 7 Comprehensive Planning Factors, Continuous Support System, Comprehensive Talent System, Modern Sports Facilities, Coach Retraining, Scientific Exercises and Performance Assessment were identified as key factors. Finally, using Scenariowizard software, 2 probable scenarios and 8 plausible scenarios were extracted and analyzed and it was suggested that experts use foresight techniques in their long-term planning to prepare for future situations.