Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 PhD Student in Sports Management, Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
2 Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Sport Science Management, Faculty of Sports Sciences, Isfahan State University, Isfahan, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Sports Management, Department of Physical Education and Sport Sciences, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to develop scenarios for the future of managerial stability in Iranian sports federations up to the 2035 horizon. This applied research, which was descriptive-analytical in nature and utilized a foresight approach, was conducted using an exploratory mixed-methods design based on Voros's (2003) three-step foresight framework. The participants in the input phase included 26 sports experts and senior managers, selected through purposive and snowball sampling. From this group, 10 individuals participated as a strategic council in the processing and output phases. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews, a 28×28 cross-impact matrix, and a 12×12 scenario matrix. The validity of the findings was ensured through expert review and the criteria of credibility, transferability, dependability, and confirmability. Ultimately, the data were analyzed using thematic analysis, cross-impact analysis, and cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis. In the input phase, 139 basic themes were identified within 28 organizing themes and 7 global themes. In the processing phase, four key uncertainties were extracted: "institutional autonomy and independence," "regularity of managerial appointments," "policy and institutional alignment," and "political and governmental instabilities." In the output phase, three scenarios were developed for the future of managerial stability in Iranian sports federations: "strategic institutional stability," "fragile stability and expedient management," and "institutional instability and crisis management." The results indicated that the future of managerial stability in Iranian sports federations depends on the management of institutional, political, and managerial uncertainties. Moving toward transparent, merit-based, and foresight-driven governance can pave the way for realizing the desired scenario.
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